Multilateral Diplomacy Re Iran Must Include Sanctions
Last week’s Security Council condemnation of Iran’s uranium enrichment program seems to have fallen on deaf ears. Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and Former Iranian President Hashemi Rafsanjani both were quick, this week to announce that Iran had already achieved limited first stage uranium enrichment and that it was committed to moving ahead quickly with its enrichment program. The key point here is that Iran now claims to have mastered the technology necessary for enrichment. The only limiting factor is the supply of uranium and the equipment necessary to carry out further enrichment activities. And it is clear that Iran intends to procure or develop what it needs. Of course, Iran continues to proclaim that this enrichment program has nothing to do with the development of nuclear weapons. But, its obstinacy, in the face of international condemnation, signals other intentions.
The White House is putting new emphasis on multilateral diplomacy, rather than the threat of military action, to dissuade Iran. This is a pull-back from earlier Administration statements that left a public expectation that military action would, ultimately, be necessary. One result of these earlier statements is the higher spot oil prices. But, expectation of military action might also have resulted in other countries deciding to allow the United States to carry the brunt of this crisis. If the US is going to use the threat of bombing Iran as its principal lever there is no reason for them to share in the expense of a costly sanctions program.
A multilateral diplomatic effort that stands any chance of dissuading Iran from Uranium enrichment must entail effective controls that stop Iran from procuring needed material, technology, and equipment. It must also entail harsh punitive sanctions that bring a heavy cost to bear on Iran if it persists. That means more than freezing the bank accounts of, or denying visas to, Iran’s Mullahs. The measures adopted must have a jolting impact on Iran’s fragile economy. (See my earlier blog on this topic)
We may not initially be able to stop Iran from exporting its oil, but we can severely hamper the way it does business with its oil revenues. Iran's business community is heavily dependent on goods and services, including financial services, from Europe and Japan. In fact, imports from Europe and Japan have more than offset oil export’s to them two out of the last five year. Working with our European allies, Japan and other countries, such targeted trade sanctions, even in the absence of a Security Council Resolution, can have a substantial impact. Beyond that, we must use our combined economic clout to retain pressure on Russian and Chinese firms not to undercut these sanctions measures. Ultimately, China and Russia must be convinced to join with the community of countries that will refuse to deal with Iran so long as they pursue an unacceptably dangerous road toward the development of nuclear weapons. Without their eventual participation, military action may become our only option.
