Terrorists Attack Saudi Oil Facility (updated)

LAST UPDATE AT 2:55 pm ET. One of the "nightmare scenarios" in the counterterrorism community almost happened, with an attempted terrorist attack on a major oil refinery in Abqaiq (a.k.a. Buqayq) in eastern Saudi Arabia today. This is the first known terrorist attack on an oil facility in the Kingdom, after previous attacks only on company offices (see Reuters chronology). Reuters and Al-Arabiya report that the attack failed, with Saudi security forces killing the attackers, who used 3 cars in a bombing attempt. The AP quotes the Al-Arabiya report a pipeline was damaged in the attack, but no explosion in the refinery and no oil cutoff. A late Reuters report says that two Saudi security officers were killed, and another report says 13 Saudi security officers were wounded in gunbattles before the cars exploded. MSNBC quotes Saudi security adviser Nawaf Obaid: “Three cars rammed the first of the three sets of gates protecting Abqaiq and when security shot at them all three cars exploded.” The "Middle East Online" news site reports, "Saudi oil minister Ali bin Ibrahim Al-Naimi has announced that Saudi security agencies and Saudi Aramco employees forestalled a terrorist attempt at approximately 3:10 pm. 'The incident resulted in a minor fire which was immediately extinguished, and resulted in no changes in the production levels of oil or gas in Saudi Arabia.'" Oil prices shot up and European stock markets dropped in fear on the initial news of the attack.

Daveed Gartenstein-Ross wrote an article, "Al Qaeda's Oil Weapon," in the "Weekly Standard" last year, a longer version of his September 27 CT Blog post. As he wrote, Saudi security forces found forged documents that would have given terrorists access to key oil facilities, following a shootout in the seaport of Ad-Dammam. The article also shows al-Qaeda's evolution of thought to explicit calls to attack these oil facilities to economically cripple the West. On December 7, Daveed posted about Al Qaeda deputy Ayman al-Zawahiri's call for attacks on oil facilities in a video. "I call on the holy warriors to concentrate their campaigns on the stolen oil of the Muslims, most of the revenues of which go to the enemies of Islam." Daveed reminds me that the December 2004 tape by Osama Bin Laden includes this order (MEMRI translation): "Focus your operations on it [oil production], especially in Iraq and the Gulf area, since this [lack of oil] will cause them to die off [on their own]." An early attack by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq was of an oil terminal there, killing 3 Americans, but Evan Kohlmann tells me that he hasn't targeted oil facilities in his strategy.

Former CIA officer Robert Baer describes this site as "the most vulnerable point and most spectacular target in the Saudi oil system." The huge facility processes around two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's oil output and is the single largest oil processing facility in the world. Oil industry experts on impact of successful attack: "If this has an impact on exports and production, it would be close to one of the things the industry fears the most" - "To have this happen in the world's largest oil-producing nation is what's really got people frightened." Oil markets are already touchy over Nigerian militants' continued attacks on that country's energy sector, a topic of Doug Farah's posts here and here.