Steven Emerson: Bin Laden's Bluster "Is Still Bluster"

Steven Emerson appeared on MSNBC today about the new bin Laden tape. You can see video of his MSNBC appearance here (Windows Media), and here is the transcript (emphasis mine):

NATALIE MORALES: Well, a short time ago the CIA confirmed the fact that the voice on that tape that was aired by Al-Jazeera today is that of Osama Bin Laden. On the tape Bin Laden threatens future attacks on U.S. soil and even offers a truce on unspecified conditions. Joining us now to break this all down is Steve Emerson, terrorism analyst and Executive Director of the Investigative Project. Steve, good to have you with us.

STEVEN EMERSON: Good afternoon, Natalie.

MORALES: Well, it has been in fact a year since we last heard from Bin Laden or a little over a year. Is there anything really new or surprising on this tape in your opinion?

EMERSON: Nothing really new other than the fact that he surfaced. As you know, in the last month or so there have been an increasing number of reports suggesting that he might have disappeared or that he might actually be dead, so the fact that he surfaced here is suggesting that he's feeling more secure in his environment. He lives a very disciplined life and is willing to actually disappear for a long period of time, in this case for almost a year without surfacing. So it suggests that he's now feeling secure in where he is positioned and willing to come out of his cave.

MORALES: And he's threatening new attacks in the U.S., saying that just because there hasn't been a major attack since September 11th, it doesn't mean that the heightened security here in the U.S. is working, in fact, but rather that al Qaeda needs more time for preparations. Did he give any further indication as to an attack being in the works?

EMERSON: He said that attacks are in the works, but he didn't give any specifics and I might note that in the other five or six tapes that were released since 9/11, he's threatened attacks in a very similar manner, yet none have been demonstrated to be true. So it seems to me that his bluster here is still bluster, that in fact if he had the capability of carrying out an attack, Natalie, he would have carried out such an attack. He still doesn't have that capability and that's the good news out of what is coming out of Afghanistan.

MORALES: What's also so interesting about the content is that he issues somewhat of a truce to the U.S. on Iraq and Afghanistan. The Vice President was quoted talking to another news organization saying that he believes that's a ploy. What could he be after by doing that though?

EMERSON: He is using this type of rhetoric to sow dissention within public opinion. He obviously reads the tea leaves. He's not getting hard copies of newspapers and magazines, but he's obviously using the Internet. He's probably very feverishly on the internet daily, many hours a day, reading political speeches, reading blogs, and probably reading MSNBC blogs as well as other cable networks and seeing what's appealing to the American public and seeing the political divide. So he knows what sells and he's obviously trying to appeal to public opinion that is causing the political divide in the United States as well as in Europe and using that as a means of cultivating public opinion for his own political purposes.

MORALES: Meanwhile, Steve, this tape is airing while we still don't really know the fate of Osama Bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, though it does appear he escaped that missile strike in Pakistan. But we have learned that one of al Qaeda's top bomb makers was likely killed. But does the timing tell us anything about the fact that this tape is coming from Osama Bin Laden and not al-Zawahiri?

EMERSON: That's very interesting, Natalie, because I would have expected in light of the devastating strike that now appears to have killed three to four of Ayman al-Zawahiri's top lieutenants that a tape would have surfaced from Zawahiri, saying, "you didn't get me. I'm still alive." We have not heard from Ayman al-Zawahiri, and yet we heard from Bin Laden. And yet the tape from Bin Laden seems to have been made in December, early December 2005. We don't know when this was released, whether it was put on some type of server and then it was pulled off the server by some type of jihad group and given to Al Jazeera just recently or whether Al Jazeera held on to it and decided to put it on the air today. We don't know how long they had the tape for. So I'm still waiting to hear from Ayman al-Zawahiri and the longer he does not appear, the longer the mystery then surrounds the whole strike in which he was the target.

MORALES: Certainly that mystery continues. Steve Emerson, thanks again so much for your expertise as always.

EMERSON: You are welcome.