Bombings in Thailand

On Sunday night, three near simultaneous bombings were detonated in southern Thailand, raising fears that the situation there is getting out of control. Since the unrest began on 4 January 2004, more than 600 people have been killed. Most of them, however, were victims of assassinations, not bombings. Between January 2004 and October 2004, there were roughly 40 bombings, and under ten people killed, though with many hundred wounded. Most of the violence were Molotov cocktails/arson attacks, drive by shootings and machete attacks. The few bombs that were used were relatively unsophisticated pipe bombs. The victims were predominantly agents of the state (police, soldiers, local government officials), with the number of civilians growing.

Yet in the summer of 2004, a number of things happened.

First the bombs became slightly larger and more sophisticated, being detonated by cell phone. While most of the bombs were approximately 2kg, a number were larger, in the 10kg range. They still have been able to detonate bombs larger than 10 kg on a regular basis. Militants attempted to use excelerents. Second, there were a handful of double bombings. Third, beginning in August the insurgents were using road-side IEDs to target army convoys. In several cases the insurgents used delayed bombs to target police and military investigators following a smaller initial explosion.

Following the Thai Army’s debacle at Tak Bai on 25 October 2005, the violence hit a new level. Between 25 October and the end of January 2005, the violence surged and included roughly, 42 bombings, 5 double or triple bombings, 5 fire-bombings, 5 attempted bombings, 32 assassinations, and over 32 arson attacks. Over 60 people were killed, including 15 police and four soldiers, and over 200 people were injured. Since October, bombings have averaged almost 15 per month. On 17 February, the first car bomb, comprised of 100kg of ammonium nitrate and diesel fuel was detonated, killing six.

While the three bombs on Sunday were not large or sophisticated they are important for four reasons:

1) Simultaneous bombings across two provinces are a hallmark of a sophisticated organization. The militants are more sophisticated than they are often given credit for.

2) Two of the three occurred in Songkhla province, which has been spared most of the violence, and is not seen as a safe haven for the militants. While some Thai security authorities stated that the militants were forced there because of the effective counter-insurgency operations in Narathiwat, Yala and Patani, there is considerable consternation that they are moving closer to the tourist regions. Indeed at least four foreigners were injured in the attack at Hat Yai airport.

3) They bombed the regional airport at Hat Yai, the largest in the deep-south, and also targeted a hotel. Coupled with an attack on a rubber plantation, it is clear the militants seek to target the southern economy. This fits into a pattern that we saw develop in 2004 to the present.

4) These attacks have come at a time when the Prime Minister has acknowledged his policies of the past year were overly aggressive, and that the government would try to pursue a softer approach. These militants have shown no interest in negotiating; indeed none of the organizations believed to be involved has taken credit for the attacks nor posted their demands. They seem interested only in provoking a heavy-handed government response that will create the conditions for their organizations to flourish.

Over one year into the insurgency, there is still precious little understanding of the movement and organizations involved. While there is no evidence that JI has been directly involved, there are clear social ties between JI and some of the Thai militants. JI reached out to them in 1999-2000 inviting them to join an umbrella grouping known as the Rabitatul Mujiheddin, while Hambali and his lieutenants sought to recruit Thais to carry out terrorist operations in Bangkok. We need to be aware that at some point, if the conflict continues to surge, that JI will inject itself, taking the unrest to a whole new level.